Dutch Housing Market Q3 2026: Yes, It's a Buyer's Market. No, That's Not Good News
After two years of bidding wars, buyers in the Netherlands finally have room to negotiate. But this cooling was not caused by more homes or lower prices. It was caused by more expensive money.
Short answer: yes, the Dutch housing market tipped towards buyers in the third quarter of 2026. There are 24% more homes for sale than a year ago, fewer homes sell above the asking price, and price growth has slowed to 2.9%.
But this is not the healthy kind of cooling. Mortgage rates went up, the country is still around 384,000 homes short, and a couple with two average incomes can now finance only about a third of the homes on the market.
Key takeaways
NVM counted 39,000 existing homes for sale at the end of September 2026, 24% more than a year earlier. Nearly two thirds of homes still sold above asking, down from 71%.
Prices are still rising, just slowly: +2.9% year on year in September (CBS/Kadaster), down from 11.5% in January 2025.
The main brake is the mortgage rate: the average 10-year fixed rate with NHG went from 3.84% in January to around 4.5% in early October.
The housing shortage has not gone away, and affordability is getting worse, not better. That is why waiting for a crash is not a strategy.
Is the Dutch housing market a buyer's market now?
Compared with the last few years, yes.
The quarterly figures from NVM, the largest association of Dutch estate agents, published on 8 October 2026, point in one direction:
More choice. 39,000 existing homes for sale at the end of September, up 24% on a year earlier.
Less overbidding. Nearly two thirds of homes sold above the asking price, down from 71% a year ago.
More time. Homes stayed on the market for 31 days on average, against 29.
New-build is piling up. Around 21,500 new-build homes were for sale, the highest number since the end of 2015.
Prices tell the same story. According to CBS and Kadaster, existing homes were 2.9% more expensive in September 2026 than a year earlier. In January 2025 that figure was 11.5%. In September prices even dipped 0.4% compared with August.
Where prices are falling, and where they are still climbing
The national average hides big differences. New CBS and Kadaster figures for about 320 municipalities show that existing homes were 3.4% more expensive in the third quarter of 2026 than a year earlier. But in 13 municipalities prices went down, up from six in the quarter before.
Cheaper than a year ago: Best -4.6%, Hillegom -4.4%, Texel -3.6%, IJsselstein -2.6%, Veldhoven -1.4%, and Eindhoven, Delft and Zaanstad -0.8% each. Haarlem, Amstelveen and Schouwen-Duiveland also dipped slightly.
Still rising fast: Woudenberg +14.6%, Oldebroek +14.1%, Asten +14.0%, Berg en Dal +13.3%, Simpelveld and Noardeast-Fryslân +12.9% each. Most of the strongest growth is in the north and east of the country.
The four big cities: Amsterdam +1%, Utrecht +2%, Rotterdam +2.9%, The Hague +4.4%.
One honest caveat. By NVM's own measure the market is still tight: its scarcity indicator rose from 2.3 to 2.8, and anything below 5 counts as a shortage. So this is a buyer's market in the sense that matters at a viewing: less pressure, more time, room to negotiate. It is not a market where homes have become cheap.
Why did the market cool down?
Not because there are suddenly enough homes. Because borrowing became more expensive.
Inflation in the eurozone stayed well above target this year and reached 3.8% in September. The European Central Bank responded by raising rates twice, in June and in September, to 2.50%. Dutch lenders followed.
The average 10-year fixed mortgage rate with NHG was 3.84% at the start of the year. By early October it was 4.52%, according to the weekly rate reports of mortgage adviser Van Bruggen. At the end of October it was still 4.43%.
What does that mean in euros? On a €400,000 mortgage over 30 years, the monthly payment goes from about €1,873 to €2,010. Or, put the other way round: for the same monthly payment, you can borrow roughly €27,000 less. (Our simplified calculation; your real borrowing capacity also depends on your income and Dutch lending rules.)
Buyers felt it straight away. In October 2026 the number of mortgage applications was 30% lower than a year earlier, according to HDN, the network through which most Dutch mortgage applications run. Part of that drop is a hangover from September, when people rushed to lock in a rate before announced increases. But the direction is clear.
Why this cooling is not good news
A healthy cooling happens when supply catches up with demand. This one happens because buyers drop out.
The shortage hasn't gone anywhere
ABF Research, which calculates the official housing shortage for the Dutch government, put it at 384,000 homes in 2026, or 4.6% of all homes. The target is 2%. Even at 100,000 new homes a year, ABF expects to reach it only around 2034. In the region around The Hague it is 6.4%.
And part of the extra supply isn't new at all. Many of the homes now for sale used to be rentals that private landlords are selling off. As NVM points out, that gives buyers more choice and leaves renters with less. The country didn't get more homes. Homes changed sides.
Two incomes are no longer enough
This is the part that worries us most.
In August 2026 the mortgage adviser De Hypotheker calculated what a couple earning €88,000 a year together (€48,000 plus €40,000) can afford. The answer: 32.2% of the homes for sale in the Netherlands, down from 35.9% a year earlier. In Utrecht it is 20.1%. In Noord-Holland, 24.3%. Only in Groningen and Limburg can such a couple reach more than half of the market.
For a single person on €48,000, the figure is 1.2%. Not 12. One point two.
Keep in mind that De Hypotheker calculated with a mortgage rate of 4.05%. Rates have risen since then, so today the picture is likely a little worse.
You can see it in who is buying. First-time buyers made up 47% of mortgage applications for a home purchase in October, the lowest share in five years (HDN). The people disappearing from the market are not speculators. They are young couples and families who would like to buy and can't.
New-build is not the answer either
There are more new-build homes for sale than in a decade, yet new-build sales have now fallen year on year for four quarters in a row. The median price stayed at €504,000 while the price per square metre rose 4.8%. NVM has a word for it: krimpflatie. You pay the same and get fewer square metres.
What does this mean for expat buyers?
Many of our clients earn more than the households in these calculations. That helps. But the same forces work on every budget: higher rates shrink what you can borrow, and a shortage keeps prices from falling.
Use the negotiating room, but don't expect bargains. In the third quarter, 1 in 6 homes for sale had its asking price cut, a record according to Huispedia, and almost 3 in 10 of those sold below even the reduced price. That is where conditions such as a financing condition or a building inspection become realistic again.
Recalculate your budget at today's rate. A mortgage-in-principle from the spring was based on a lower rate. Check it again before you start viewing.
Don't wait for a crash. With a shortage of 384,000 homes, prices are more likely to stall than to fall. And if rates come down, the buyers who left will come back, and so will the bidding wars.
Look below the national average. Groningen and Utrecht are different markets. We explained why in Why Average Price Figures Mislead Expat Buyers.
Earlier this year we wrote that 2026 would give expat buyers more choice and less time. The third quarter confirmed the first part. The second part depends on what rates do next.
A calm market is a good moment to buy only if the home fits your next five years. The calm itself is not a reason.
Thinking about buying in the Netherlands and want to know what this market means for your budget and your city? We do the pre-purchase research before you commit. Write to us at team@expatgate.nl.
FAQ
Is it a buyer's market in the Netherlands in 2026?
More than in recent years. In Q3 2026 there were 24% more homes for sale than a year earlier and fewer homes sold above asking (NVM). Officially, though, the market is still tight.
Are Dutch house prices falling?
No. Prices were 2.9% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier (CBS/Kadaster). Growth is slowing, and September was 0.4% lower than August, but prices are not falling year on year.
Why are Dutch mortgage rates rising in 2026?
Inflation in the eurozone stayed high and the ECB raised its rates in June and September 2026. The average 10-year fixed rate with NHG rose from 3.84% in January to about 4.5% in October.
Can a couple with two average incomes buy a house in the Netherlands?
In some regions, yes. Nationally, a couple earning €88,000 together can finance about 32% of homes for sale; in Utrecht only about 20% (De Hypotheker, August 2026).
Should I wait for prices to drop?
With a shortage of around 384,000 homes, a broad price drop is unlikely. Waiting mainly makes sense if your own plans are not settled yet.
Sources: NVM quarterly figures Q3 2026 (8 October 2026); CBS/Kadaster price index of existing owner-occupied homes (22 October 2026); HDN mortgage applications October 2026 (2 November 2026); Huispedia asking-price reductions Q3 2026 (5 November 2026); CBS/Kadaster house prices by municipality Q3 2026 (11 November 2026); De Hypotheker affordability analysis (August 2026); ABF Research, Primos forecast 2026 (June 2026); Van Bruggen weekly mortgage rate reports.
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This article is part of the Expat Gate research series on the Dutch property market. Expat Gate NL is the Netherlands branch of Expat Gate Global, an independent research and advisory firm helping people make data-driven property decisions across international markets.
