The 2026 Window: Why Expat Buyers Have More Choice Right Now — and Less Time Than They Think
The 2026 Window: Why Expat Buyers Have More Choice Right Now — and Less Time Than They Think
The Dutch market didn't cool down. It slowed down. And the one thing that actually improved for buyers this year is already starting to fade.
If you are an expat waiting for Dutch house prices to fall before you buy, 2026 is quietly working against you. Prices are still rising — just more slowly. And the thing that genuinely improved this year, your choice of homes, is the part that won't last.
Key takeaways
Rabobank expects house prices to end 2026 around 3% higher than 2025 — a sharp slowdown from the 8.6% jump in 2025, but still up, not down.
More homes came to market this year — new-build completions plus a wave of former rental properties being sold off — giving buyers the most choice in years.
That extra supply is temporary: the rental sell-off is expected to fade during 2026, and the market is forecast to tighten again.
Price growth is expected to re-accelerate in 2027 — so the real opportunity right now is selection, not a future discount.
Did the Dutch housing market finally cool down?
Not really. It grew up.
For years one rule governed this market: everything goes up, everywhere, fast. In 2025 prices rose 8.6% and bidding wars were the default. In 2026 that era is ending — but the headline most expats are hoping for ("prices are falling") isn't coming. Rabobank's own summary is blunt: no signs of cooling, even as supply grows. Growth has simply moderated to around 3% nationally.
A slower market is not a falling market. It's a market that finally gives a careful buyer room to think.
Why is there suddenly more to choose from?
Two things happened at once.
First, more new-build homes are being completed in 2026 than in the past two years. Second — and bigger — private landlords are selling off rental properties, pushing former rentals onto the for-sale market. Together they've widened the supply of available homes well beyond what expat buyers have seen recently.
For the first time in years, you can compare, hesitate, and walk away from the wrong house — instead of bidding in a panic on the only one available.
So why is the window closing?
Because the supply that opened it is running out.
The wave of ex-rental sales is expected to decline during 2026, and as it does, the market is forecast to tighten again. Transactions of existing homes are already projected to fall — from roughly 229,000 this year toward 210,000 by 2027. And Rabobank expects price growth to pick up strongly again in 2027.
Read those three signals together and the picture is clear: the extra choice of 2026 is a passing phase, not the new normal.
What this actually means for expat buyers
The mistake is to treat 2026 as a year to wait. It's a year to choose well.
The advantage on the table right now isn't a lower price — it's optionality. More listings mean less bidding pressure, more time for proper pre-purchase research, and a real chance to match a home to your life rather than to the market's panic. That advantage is strongest for buyers who are ready before the supply tightens — mortgage in principle arranged, criteria defined, lender chosen.
The Dutch rules still apply underneath all of this: foreign nationals can buy freely, financing can reach 100% of value, and a first home under 35 can be transfer-tax-free (see two rules most expats learn too late). What changes in 2026 is not whether you can buy — it's how much room you have to be selective when you do.
In 2026, the smart question isn't "will it get cheaper?" It's "will I still have this much to choose from?"
For us, timing the market was never the point. Buying the right home — while you still have the room to choose — is.
Thinking about buying in the Netherlands this year? We do the pre-purchase research before you commit. Reach us at team@expatgate.nl.
FAQ
Will house prices in the Netherlands fall in 2026?
No. Rabobank expects prices to end 2026 around 3% higher than 2025 — slower growth, not a decline.
Is now a good time for expats to buy?
For buyers who are ready, yes — not because prices are low, but because choice is unusually wide right now and expected to narrow later in the year.
Why are there more homes for sale in 2026?
More new-build completions plus a temporary wave of private landlords selling rental properties.
Should I just wait until 2027?
Forecasts point to stronger price growth and tighter supply in 2027 — so waiting is more likely to cost you choice and money than to save it.
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This article is part of the Expat Gate research series on the Dutch property market. Expat Gate NL is the Netherlands branch of Expat Gate Global — an independent research and advisory firm helping people make data-driven property decisions across international markets.
